The executive revenue call starts the same way every quarter: "Which deals are closing this month?"

Around the table, sellers recite their pipeline. Confident close dates. Promising conversations. The forecast shows $10 million in opportunities for the quarter. 

Thirty days later, 35% of those deals close.

The uncomfortable truth: most of what sits in your pipeline isn't real. It's wishes dressed up as opportunities.

Understanding Imaginary Deals

The Hope-Based Forecasting Problem

In many organizations, close dates are hopes, not commitments. Deals push quarter after quarter. The symptoms: too much "fluff" in the forecast, opportunities that stall without anyone knowing why, deals that weren't opportunities to begin with.

The Qualification Mistake: Interest Doesn't Equal Intent

Someone downloads a whitepaper or agrees to a demo, and suddenly they're "qualified." The seller adds them to the pipeline.

But there is a difference between engagement and commitment. 

The common mistake: if they talk to me, they're in an active buying cycle. They're not. And treating them like they are wastes time on prospects who can't or won't act.

Why Deals Stall

Deals stall because sellers track activity (did the demo, sent follow-up) instead of buyer commitment. This creates pipelines where the seller is only talking to one person, the client hasn't explored the problem, and there's no evidence the buyer can actually act.

Without those, you don't have an opportunity.  

Evidence Over Assumption: What Actually Proves an Opportunity Is Real

I briefly break down the qualification challenge in the video here.

The shift required is moving from assumption-based to evidence-based qualification. Most sellers qualify based on how they feel about a conversation. But feelings aren't forecasts.

What Evidence Looks Like 

Evidence is observable buyer behavior:

  • Did they bring additional stakeholders? 
  • Did they complete homework or provide access to others?
  • Can they articulate what success looks like and what it costs to stay where they are? 
  • Have they demonstrated that someone with authority is engaged?

The shift from "they seemed interested" to "here's what they did" changes everything.

Qualification Is Continuous

Traditional frameworks like BANT assume the buyer is already evaluating. But qualification isn't a single checkpoint. It's continuous. Buyers move forward and backward as information emerges and priorities shift.

Building a Pipeline You Can Trust

Start by Qualifying Out

Rather than looking for reasons to keep an opportunity in your pipeline, look for reasons to remove it. More than half of potential buyers are comfortable enough that they won't act. These prospects belong in nurture campaigns, not your active pipeline.

Distinguish Between Exploring and Evaluating

At any given time, only about 3% of potential buyers are actively evaluating. Another 40.5% are beginning to experience dissatisfaction but aren't yet urgent. The remaining 56.5% aren't ready because status quo is acceptable enough.

Rushing to demonstrate your solution with someone still exploring scares them off. Until a buyer has articulated why change matters and what success looks like, they're not ready.

Redefine Your Pipeline Stages

Most CRMs define stages by seller activity: demo completed, proposal sent. This tracks your process, not the buyer's journey.

Redefine based on buyer evidence: 

  • Early stage means buyer(s) can articulate what they want to fix, accomplish or avoid and why taking action now is important.
  • Mid stage means buyer(s) have defined success and involved other stakeholders. 
  • Late stage means buyer(s) have built an internal business case and their decision milestones.

Coach to Evidence

Manager pipeline reviews should ask: "What evidence do you have?" If the seller can't answer with concrete examples, the opportunity moves backward or out.

Qualification isn't a step in your sales process. It is your sales process. Pipelines built on evidence close predictably. Pipelines built on hope don't.

Build a Qualification Framework You Can Trust

Every organization needs to approach qualification differently based on their sales challenge and buyer behavior. Our eBook, Lead Qualification Clarity: How to Prioritize and Pursue Prospects, walks through how to create a qualification approach tailored to your business.

Download the eBook now and start building a pipeline you can trust.